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US-INDIA: President Bush signs historic civilian nuclear agreement

From left: President George W. Bush addressing the Indian-American Community before signing the India-US Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Non-proliferation Enhancement Act on 8 October, 2008, in Washington DC. Also seen in the picture from left are Congressman Joseph Crowley, Congressman Eliot Engel, Senator Christopher Dodd, Vice President Dick Cheney, Senator John Warner, Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman and Indian ambassador Ronen Sen.

If Americans had not been confronting their worst financial crisis in over 70 years, not to mention a presidential election, the US-India civilian nuclear agreement may have made a bigger splash here. The irony is that when President Bush signed the deal today, it was termed a signature achievement of his administration, and yet it passes by relatively un-noticed, as his approval ratings stay mired in the low 20s.

Here are the president's remarks on the deal, as per the Associated Press:

"By undertaking new cooperation on civil nuclear energy, India will be able to count on a reliable fuel supply for its civilian reactors, meet the energy demands of its people, and reduce its independence on fossil fuels," Bush said at a ceremony in the East Room. "For our part, the United States will gain access to a growing market for civilian nuclear technologies and materials that will help American businesses create more jobs for our people here at home."

Today's signing came a week after the Senate overwhelmingly approved the deal (see the vote breakdown: all Republicans voted yes). The House of Representatives passed it on September 27, by a vote of 298 to 117 (breakdown). And it was three years after the nuclear deal was initially proposed by Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Just three months ago, Singh passed through his trial by fire: a confidence vote brought on by opposition to the deal; he won the vote and his Congress party remained in power, but only after losing integrity, as reports surfaced that many votes were obtained through bribes.

For a complete chronology of the deal, from July 28, 2005 through today's signing, check out the timeline at The Economic Times.

Coverage:

• Press Trust of India: "Bush inked the authorising legislation finally approved by the US Congress last week in a high profile ceremony at the White House's ornate East Room reversing 34 years of US policy to eventually allow American businesses to have a share of India's 100 billion dollar nuclear pie."
• Los Angeles Times blog: "Bush's success in squeezing the legislation out of Congress in its final days reflected, once again, the ability of a lame-duck president with approval ratings below 30% and facing a hostile House and Senate to nonetheless achieve some top priorities."

PREZ POLITICS: Outlook India's Obama interview

Ashish Kumar Sen, a DC-based contributor to Outlook magazine, in India, scored a lengthy interview with Barack Obama, the first for any South Asian media outlet. I would have asked him how he did it but fortunately he's written a separate piece, "How I Chased Obama."

Allow us to reproduce an excerpt:

What began as a shot in the dark was to soon become an obsession for me. Perhaps it was because I was witness to the Obama mania sweeping America. To watch him campaign during those months was akin to experiencing a rock star inspire millions to dance to his tunes of hope. "Yes, we can"—his campaign slogan read. These simple words, transposed to my very specific situation, suddenly started making a lot of sense.

But before the Obama interview became a bee that wouldn’t stop buzzing in my head, things were already in motion. I called an Illinois-based friend and supporter of Obama who put me in touch with a campaign advisor. She promised to forward my request with a strong recommendation. My selling point: "Outlook may not be distributed in the US, but our website is the gateway to India for expat Indians living in the US."

Three weeks later, I received a call from the Obama advisor. Could I submit a sample of the questions I wished to ask Obama? I did. Days later, in mid-March, I received yet another call from the advisor. What’s your last deadline? "Wednesday," I said, excited. I drew my own conclusions: nobody asks for your deadline unless...

The interview appears to have been conducted by email, and touched upon issues ranging from the nuclear deal - Obama says he's "reluctant to seek changes" - to the irreversibility of outsourcing, to the Islamic world:

If I go to a poor country and speak about both the US obligation to work with poor countries to relieve suffering, and also the responsibility of poor countries to clear up corruption and increase transparency and rule of law and build their civil service, I do so with the credibility of someone with a grandmother who lives in an impoverished village in Africa.

NUKES: More A.Q. Khan revelations in U.N. report

A.Q. Khan, the rogue nuclear scientist and head of the most elaborate smuggling ring in history, has been under house arrest in Pakistan for four years. Now his old activities are back in the news. From a front-page story in Sunday's Washington Post, by John Warrick:

An international smuggling ring that sold bomb-related parts to Libya, Iran and North Korea also managed to acquire blueprints for an advanced nuclear weapon, according to a draft report by a former top U.N. arms inspector that suggests the plans could have been shared secretly with any number of countries or rogue groups.

The drawings, discovered in 2006 on computers owned by Swiss businessmen, included essential details for building a compact nuclear device that could be fitted on a type of ballistic missile used by Iran and more than a dozen developing countries, the report states.

The computer contents -- among more than 1,000 gigabytes of data seized -- were recently destroyed by Swiss authorities under the supervision of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, which is investigating the now-defunct smuggling ring previously led by Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan.

But U.N. officials cannot rule out the possibility that the blueprints were shared with others before their discovery, said the report's author, David Albright, a prominent nuclear weapons expert who spent four years researching the smuggling network.

"These advanced nuclear weapons designs may have long ago been sold off to some of the most treacherous regimes in the world," Albright wrote in a draft report about the blueprint's discovery. A copy of the report, expected to be published later this week, was provided to The Washington Post.

The A.Q. Khan smuggling ring was previously known to have provided Libya with design information for a nuclear bomb. But the blueprints found in 2006 are far more troubling, Albright said in his report. While Libya was given plans for an older and relatively unsophisticated weapon that was bulky and difficult to deliver, the newly discovered blueprints offered instructions for building a compact device, the report said. The lethality of such a bomb would be little enhanced, but its smaller size might allow for delivery by ballistic missile.

From a front-page story about the same report, in Sunday's New York Times, by David Sanger and William Broad:

CURRENT AFFAIRS: Nicolas Sarkozy and Les liasons indienne

UPDATE: Jan. 25, 2008 - Sarkozy arrived in India today, accompanied by a 300-member delegation but without Carla Bruni. So it looks like policy is going to be the story rather than affairs of the heart.

Original post, Jan. 20:

When French President Nicolas Sarkozy arrives in Delhi as a guest at the Republic Day celebrations on January 26th, there is a danger that he will set off an international incident, according to the BBC.

As everyone who has looked at a grocery store magazine rack in the past few months knows, Sarkozy divorced his wife of 11 years, Cecilia, last October and is now engaged to former supermodel Carla Bruni. So if Bruni accompanies President Sarkozy to Delhi and if they are not married by then, how should she be treated according to diplomatic protocol? Like a First Lady? Like any other guest of honor? Should she not go at all?

BOOKS: T.P. Sreenivasan's "Words, Words, Words: Adventures in Diplomacy" and nuclear politics

Here's a new book that, besides being relevant to the ongoing civilian nuclear energy deal between the U.S. and India, has the added link of being written by my blogmate Sree's dad, Ambassador T.P. Sreenivasan (more on him at the bottom). From The Telegraph:

In Words Words Words: Adventures in Diplomacy, Sreenivasan provides a fascinating narrative of how the Bush administration deprived India of its due role in the UN nuclear watchdog and how Pakistan got away in the IAEA with the A.Q. Khan black market business in nuclear material as a result of the American stand.

The review also delves into the backroom work of Ken Brill. Brill was the acting U.S. ambassador to India at the time that India's appointee, Anil Kakodkar, was set to assume the lead role in the International Atomic Energy Agency, prior to the Iraq war.

Brill “was quite forthright in saying that it was the considered decision of his government (Bush administration)... that they would not like India to have any leadership role in the IAEA because of (the) 1998” (Pokhran tests), Sreenivasan says in his memoir.

<snip>

History may have been different if Kakodkar had been elected. The U.S. supported Kuwait for the post and the latter went along with whatever the Americans wanted in the run up to the Iraq war in 2003 and on the A.Q. Khan nuclear black market.

 

INDO-US AFFAIRS: Op-eds in the WSJ and by Chomsky/Zinn/Vijay Prashad on the 123 Deal

Two op-eds on India's still-tenuous nuclear energy deal with the U.S. The first is by Mary Kissel, the editor of the Wall Street Journal Asia's editorial page: "Delhi Drama" (via Ram Narayanan). It focuses on the ongoing drama initiated by the Communist wing of the ruling coalition, which wants to undo the deal (if not Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government). Kissel says the Left is "ideologically antiquated and dangerously out of touch with the public."

If the deal falls through, it could be years before Washington -- or any other nuclear nation -- broaches the idea of selling nuclear fuel to India. That outcome would, ironically, make India more dependent on Iran for energy, and weaken its own economic prospects. It would also undermine other nations’ willingness to negotiate major treaties with Delhi, the logic being that if Mr. Singh can’t get a sweet deal like this through Parliament, what can he get passed?

Well, a Who's Who of the world's lefties have this to say to Ms. Kissel and other supporters of the deal: Scrap-it.
Writers including Noam Chomsky, Howard Zinn, and Vijay Prashad submitted a statement, called "Why we oppose the Indo-U.S. military ties" which ran in The Hindu earlier this week. It makes 3 main points: 

NUKES: A Smalltown American Paper's Perspective

Here's an editorial from Watertown Daily Times in upstate News York (weekday circulation: 29,849) on the US-India nuclear deal -- a sample of a small-town newspaper's perspective.

The Bush administration has made significant concessions to India to clear the way for the sale of U.S. civilian nuclear technology. If approved by Congress, the arrangement will end three decades of U.S. policy aimed at controlling the spread of nuclear technology.

[The editorial is available only subscription on the paper's site. Below is the full text, from Newsday's wesite that features an AP roundup of editorials.]

Post your comments below.

EARLIER ON SAJAforum.org:

• NUKES: US-India Complete Nuclear Deal

US-INDIA AFFAIRS: U.S. & India Complete Nuclear Deal

The governments of India and the U.S. have announced that they have completed negotiations on the controversial nuclear pact. UPDATE: See the full text of the agreement (22 pages; thanks to Raju Narisetti, editor of LiveMint.com for sharing this) - download nuke.pdf

From a Reuters piece this morning with an unusual double dateline:

U.S., India announce completion of nuclear deal                                                         
By Carol Giacomo and Y.P. Rajesh                              
Fri Jul 27,  9:51 AM ET

WASHINGTON/NEW DELHI (Reuters) - The United States and India said on Friday they have completed negotiations on a nuclear cooperation deal that would offer enormous benefits for both sides.

But neither country gave details of the long-delayed, controversial accord and acknowledged critical steps must be taken before it can be implemented.

The pact, approved by India's cabinet on Wednesday, would allow India access to U.S. nuclear fuel and equipment for the first time in 30 years, even though New Delhi refused to join non-proliferation pacts and tested nuclear weapons.

In a press briefing, U.S. Under Secretary for Political Affairs R. Nicholas Burns (who has made eight trips to India over the past two years for this) said, "In my view this is perhaps the single most important initative that India and the United States have agreed to  in the 60 years of our relationship." See video of his 50-minute briefing below, along with the Q&A session. See full text of the session here.

Among the questions from the press:

As you said in the past, there's been a lot of divisiveness, and part of that was because the two sides interpreted the same provision and agreement differently. So is everything in this agreement so crystal clear that there is no ambiguity about it and that the Indian Government would endorse everything that you've said today as to how we should interpret it?

UPDATE: We received this very short and to-the-point note from the Henry L. Stimson Center, a Washington think tank that does a lot of South Asia work:

At the very least, the Bush administration should not make it easier for New Delhi to resume nuclear testing and to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons.

It appears that the 123 Agreement fails to meet these minimal standards as well as the clear requirements established in the Hyde Act.

Michael Krepon
Co-Founder
The Henry L. Stimson Center
More on the Stimson Center’s South Asia Project can be found at www.stimson.org/southasia

This morning, SAJAforum received a press release from the U.S. State Department. It's reproduced below.
As we get more announcements - perhaps from the Indian government as well as from folks who'd been opposed to the deal, we will post them here. Do check back. And post your comments below.