[A guest post by Asif Saleh, the founder of the human rights group Drishtipat and a frequent contributor to the group's blog]
Although, the long awaited election is exactly a month away from today, the threat of a boycott by former Prime minister and BNP chief Khaleda Zia has put it under serious jeopardy. The wheels have turned full cycle. Only two years ago the very same leader while in power said elections had to happen on time under any means to continue constitutional obligation, while Shaikh Hasina, the Awami League head, demonstrated for a deferred election until the electoral playing field was levelled. At that time, the boycotting party, Awami League and its demand for a new electoral register and a new election commission was supported by the civil society and independent observers. But this time, BNP's often inconsistent stands are hardly winning them friends. In January 2007, amid sweeping controversy over President Iajuddin Ahmed's partisan handling of election related matters and a suffocating political deadlock between the leading two parties, the military intervention, backed by the Western power block, which later got termed as the 'coup that dare not speak its name', brought in a new caretaker government under a state of emergency declaration.
Under the constitutional cover of the state of emergency, the military controlled government subsequently gave itself two years to take sweeping anti corruption measures and promised electoral reforms. The measures, initially cheered by the majority of the civil society, soon were criticized for being mismanaged by the military and were accused of being a tool of political witch hunting to weaken the political entities in order to establish a long term hold by the military government. The rising unpopularity of the government, triggered by the double digit inflation, soon brought it to the negotiating table with the same political leaders that it once treated like untouchables. The Western governments, faced with a long prospect another long standing and unpopular military government in the mould of Musharraf in Bangladesh, called an end to its experiments and signalled the army for a political solution.
The wheels of election started to turn with the release of the political prisoners including the two former prime ministers. Both the leaders, after their release, made promises to participate in the election. However, as the day of the nomination filing started getting closer, BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami , two coalition partners, started adding more and more pre-conditions for its participation. They now want a full lifting of the state of emergency before election, even though its powers have drastically been curtailed. Among the least of their demands are: a postponement of the election by a few weeks at the least and a complete reversal of the electoral reforms put in by this government. Awami League is, however, more accommodating in it stand, perhaps sensing a better organizational strength and sniffing a chance of victory in the coming election after its recent clean sweep at the local polls. Its coalition partners are demanding the election to happen on the announced date with or without BNP's participation.
While haggling over these demands continues, the fear is that this uncertainty will only make a stronger case for those who want a rule by selection and not election. There are now three scenarios that are possible happen in the coming days.
1. Election happens on December 18th without BNP – an unlikely scenario given that its not going to be meaningful.
2. Government gives BNP a face saving exit by agreeing to a postponement by only a few weeks without budging on its other demands -- a win win situation for all but BNP may need more than a few weeks to organize its house and will likely reject this gesture.
3. Election does not happen for indefinite period and something drastically new like a new form of the caretaker government or a referendum is called – a worst case scenario for any democrat.
Most observers
agree that without BNP's participation, the election is unlikely to be
meaningful. However, by
asking for a complete roll back of the electoral reform law passed by the
government recently, BNP may also be leaving no room for negotiation.
Bangladesh faces massive problems in the
field of reenergizing its economy amid high inflation and a horrendous global
financial environment. Its strategy to
adapt to climate change is also coming
to the forefront of global discussion.
Still, the political parties have yet to come out with a
manifesto or a plan on how they are going to tackle these or any other
socio-political issues. With only a
month left and hardly any election related activities noticeable at the
grassroots, amid the haggling with dates gloom is descending among the
electorate fearing the worst.
--Asif Saleh
